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- calendar_today October 15, 2026
International Prediction Markets Take Aim at Ontario Elections
Despite Canadian laws prohibiting election betting, international prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are facilitating hundreds of thousands of dollars in wagers on Ontario’s upcoming municipal races this October. These bets are being placed on high-profile elections, such as the Toronto mayoral race, and extend to other municipalities including Oshawa, Oakville, and Mississauga.
Volume of Wagers on Mayoral and Municipal Races
According to available figures, nearly $400,000 in bets have already been placed on Polymarket alone for the next Toronto mayor, while approximately $43,000 has been wagered on Kalshi. Similar markets in other Ontario municipalities have drawn between $5,000 and $40,000 each. Manifold, an online social prediction platform using play money, is also seeing activity related to these races.
Canadian Regulations and How Users Circumvent Them
In Canada, prediction markets are tightly regulated: local users are restricted to authorized topics such as the climate, financial markets, and economic indicators. These legal markets must be operated through authorized dealers overseen by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO). Election betting by Ontarians on these international platforms is expressly forbidden, and Polymarket is currently under a two-year ban in Ontario after the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) determined in 2025 that it had violated provincial securities laws.
Cristie Ford, associate professor at the University of British Columbia and expert in financial regulation, notes that Canadians may sidestep restrictions by using VPNs (Virtual Private Networks) to disguise their location. "You can use a VPN to conceal your physical location, or the location of your computer in Canada, to make it look as though you're outside of Canada," Ford explains.
Polymarket representative Connor Brandi stated that the site strictly prohibits VPN use and actively monitors for attempts to bypass geographic restrictions. Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever echoed this stance, adding that identity and residency checks are in place to prevent VPN circumvention, and there is "no evidence" of such activity affecting Ontario bets.
Potential Effects on Voter Perceptions and Risks for Young People
One reason for Canada's firm stance against election betting is concern over the possible influence on public perception and voter behaviour. Ford warns, "By making it look as though there's momentum behind a particular candidate, you can potentially affect whether or not people show up to vote." Experts also suggest that young people, particularly young men, are most at risk, as industry marketing often targets them.
Toronto mayoral candidates Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford both responded to inquiries about the prediction markets. Bradford emphasized the importance of voting over betting, while Chow pointed to regulatory agencies as responsible for oversight, remarking on the large sums being wagered.
Enforcement and Regulatory Oversight Challenges
Regulatory responsibility in Canada is split among several entities. The Ontario Securities Commission, which has already sanctioned Polymarket, expects compliance from those subject to its orders, yet broader regulation falls under the purview of the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) and CIRO. The CSA coordinates provincial agencies in safeguarding investors, while CIRO sets and enforces rules for authorized investment dealers.
CIRO spokesperson Ariel Visconti reiterated that Canadian regulation only applies to authorized topics and firms. Investors who use VPNs or similar methods to sidestep restrictions do so outside the protection of CIRO safeguards.
Broader Concerns and Calls for Further Regulation
Concerns about manipulation and the integrity of election outcomes continue to grow alongside the popularity of prediction markets. Allegations of insider trading and regulatory loopholes have sparked calls for greater oversight worldwide, not just in Canada. As the October municipal races approach, scrutiny of both local and international betting platforms is likely to intensify.
Source: cbc.ca.
