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- calendar_today October 29, 2026
Ontario's Mini-Budget Projects Larger Deficit for 2026-2027
Ontario's latest mini-budget, tabled on Thursday by Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy, forecasts a deficit of $16.9 billion for the 2026-2027 fiscal year. This figure exceeds previous projections, marking a significant increase from the $13.8 billion deficit forecasted earlier. The province attributes the larger deficit in part to the ongoing impact of U.S. tariffs and broader economic instability.
U.S. Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty Weigh on Provincial Finances
Minister Bethlenfalvy pointed to U.S. tariffs—particularly those affecting Ontario's steel, auto, and manufacturing sectors—as a major driver of the province's deepening fiscal challenges. "The impact of U.S. tariffs, which have hit, among others, our steel, auto and manufacturing sectors, and global conflicts such as the Strait of Hormuz impacting energy prices, has led to the world awash in a sea of instability," he said in a statement to the legislature. Bethlenfalvy also cited rising gas prices and inflation of goods as consequences of both tariffs and ongoing global conflicts, with Ontario families and businesses reportedly feeling the effects.
Balancing the Budget: Timeline Extends to 2029-2030
The mini-budget marks the fourth time since 2024 that Premier Doug Ford's government has extended its target for balancing the provincial budget. Earlier, the government aimed for balance by 2027, but subsequent forecasts have repeatedly delayed the date. The current fiscal update now anticipates balancing the books in the 2029-2030 fiscal year. Bethlenfalvy attributed this delay to ongoing international tensions, the effects of tariffs, and a commitment to protecting investments in public services. "While I'd like to balance today, I'm also a realist," he told reporters.
Contingency Fund Swells Amid Trade Unrest
In response to fiscal risks, Ontario is allocating $3.8 billion to its contingency fund this year, growing the fund to $4.9 billion. Provincial officials expect most of these funds to be used by year-end, reflecting the unpredictable environment created by new and threatened U.S. tariffs and tensions in the Middle East. The province's strategy also includes matching federal tax breaks for business capital investment and committing billions in funding to sectors hardest hit by trade measures, such as steel and auto manufacturing.
Opposition Criticizes Deficit and Budget Decisions
Ontario’s New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Marit Stiles, criticized the ballooning deficit as an "admission of failure," alleging insufficient government action to address affordability for residents. Stiles and NDP finance critic Jessica Bell challenged the Ford government's decision to increase spending and build the contingency fund, arguing that these resources should instead address immediate concerns like overcrowded classrooms and wait times in emergency departments. "Why have we got this contingency fund when we have all these necessary measures that need to be funded immediately," Bell said.
Housing Start Projections and Economic Outlook
The mini-budget also provided projections for housing starts, showing a slight dip this year to 64,700 compared to 65,400 in 2025. Growth is expected to remain flat for 2027, with increases forecasted for 2028 and 2029. Despite current challenges, Bethlenfalvy maintained that Ontario's financial health is not as precarious as during the 2008-09 recession or the COVID-19 pandemic.
Source: cbc.ca.
